Economy
A couple of observations on the on going economic downturn. —”Downturn.” It’s such a nice word when compared to recession.
Pioneer Loan Center Blog says “Retail Sales Have Tanked”
“Everyone is scared. -We are in a full blown recession whether the number crunchers in Washington say so or not.”
Political Nevada says “It’s over! Economy isn’t!.” –Referring to the election and the economic problems.
“There are all manner of experts claiming to have the solution for our failed economy, and like anything else these experts can’t agree on any one issue other than the country is hurt.”
Opinions on economists:
Give me a one-handed economist! All my economists say, ‘on the one hand…on the other.’ —Harry S Truman
If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.
—George Bernard Shaw
According to the Wall Street Journal The experts are looking for new ways to gauge the downturn.
WSJ — Economists struggling to gauge the depth of the U.S. downturn are turning to more forward-looking clues, such as home-vacancy rates and foreign stock markets.
The standard measures of gross domestic product and monthly payroll figures give snapshots of what has happened, but say less about what will happen next.
The current downturn is shaping up to be worse than the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001 and the prolonged downturn that ended in 1982. Banks are cutting back on lending, consumers are spending less, companies are shedding jobs amid sinking profits, and the housing bust that triggered the slide persists. Here are five areas economists are watching, and the indicators they are tracking.
From the Pioneer Loan Center Blog: “Expert” that’s the guy who tells you how smart he is and then blames his failures on everybody else. All the while making sure that even if you lose money he still gets paid. –By this definition the average economist is over qualified.
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted he didn’t think this could happen: “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder’s equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief.”
Everybody agrees we’re screwed. Now how are they going to fix the problem?
The answer is simple if painful:
Only loan money to people you think can pay it back.
Don’t use come-ons like interest only to sell people houses they can’t possibly afford.
And make Morgan Stanley and their ilk keep their reserves instead of using them as investment capital.